Soft demand vs the war premium
Which one drives?
One of them is setting the oil price, and the bond market’s next move depends on which.
The market just ran a controlled experiment on itself.
Last Monday, OPEC+ waved through another output increase, exports through the Strait of Hormuz were recovering, and Citi mused about $60 crude if traffic normalised. Bonds rallied, Morgan Stanley’s equity desk cred…
